Leave a comment

Bull Phase or Bear Phase

If you want to find out if we are in a bear or a bull market there is one easy way.By using 14 day Relative strength index.In a bear market RSI goes in oversold territory more number of times and thus gives more buy signals and there are a very few sell signals .The exact opposite happens in a bull market.RSI gives a very few buy signals and a number of sell signals .I’ll give a count of number of buy/sell signals:
In the 95 bear market RSI gave 10 Buy signals and 1 Sell signal.
In the 2000 bear market RSI gave 8 Buy signals and 2 sell signals
And in 2003-2006 Bull run RSI gave 3 Buy signals and 19 sell signals.
One more indication of a bear market is when RSI BUY signals Fail.
Since May 2006 crash RSI has given 3 Buy signals already and 2 have failed.
(For calculating the number of signals I have used metastock 9.0 expert advisor)
So my conclusion is we have entered a bear phase and we may should get 8-10 more RSI Buy signals before this bear market ends.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: